University of Washington

Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) approach to develop a more complete understanding of the factors affecting the development and expansion of intermodal freight transportation in the region. Although the accuracy of the quantitative data cannot be considered very high, general trends were analyzed. Most of the intermodal freight flow in the region is containerized cargo that visits the main marine ports in Seattle, Tacoma, and at a smaller scale Portland. Other port terminals that are able to handle intermodal freight flow exist in the region but represent a small portion of the total flow. Two Class I railroads have dedicated intermodal terminals in the region providing service for truck-road intermodal transportation, and rail connectivity to marine ports. An analysis of the difference between intermodal capacity and demand at an aggregate level indicates that the current infrastructure is able to handle the existing demand for containerized international freight flow in the region. However, different scenarios of demand growth show that if capacity expansion does not occur, the existing capacity will not be sufficient to satisfy the demand by 2040. Main factors affecting the perception of stakeholders about the level of service and future expansion of intermodal freight transportation in the region include highway congestion in the major metropolitan areas, lack of other generators and receivers of intermodal freight flow, and coordination between different stakeholders. Contact: Dr. Hector Vergara, hector.vergara@oregonstate.edu Worldwide, awareness has been raised about the dangers of growing greenhouse gas emissions. In the United States, transportation is a key contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. American and European researchers have identified a potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by replacing passenger vehicle travel with delivery service. These reductions are possible because, while delivery vehicles have higher rates of greenhouse gas emissions than private light-duty vehicles, the routing of delivery vehicles to customers is far more efficient than those customers traveling independently. In addition to lowering travel- associated greenhouse gas emissions, because of their more efficient routing and tendency to occur during off-peak hours, delivery services have the potential to reduce congestion. Thus, replacing passenger vehicle travel with delivery service provides opportunity to address global concerns — greenhouse gas emissions and congestion. While addressing the impact of transportation on greenhouse gas emissions is critical, transportation also produces significant levels of criteria pollutants, which impact the health of those in the immediate area. These impacts are of particular concern in urban areas, which due to their constrained land availability increase proximity of residents to the roadway network. In the United States, heavy vehicles (those typically used for deliveries) produce a disproportionate amount of NOx and particulate matter – heavy vehicles represent roughly 9% of vehicle miles travelled but produce nearly 50% of the NOx and PM10 from transportation. This work modeled the amount of VMT, CO2, NOx, and PM10 generated by personal travel and delivery vehicles in a number ASS E SS I N G TH E CAPAC ITY O F TH E PAC I FI C N O RTHWE ST C O NTI N U E D CHANGING RETAIL BUSINESS MODELS AND THE IMPACT ON EMISSIONS FROM TRANSPORT of different development patterns and in a number of different scenarios, including various warehouse locations. In all scenarios, VMT is reduced through the use of delivery service, and in all scenarios, NOx and PM10 are lowest when passenger vehicles are used for the last mile of travel. The goods movement scheme that results in the lowest generation of CO2, however, varies by municipality. Regression models for each goods movement scheme and models that compare sets of goods movement schemes were developed. The most influential variables in all models were measures of roadway density and proximity of a service area to the regional warehouse. This work supports earlier findings that VMT can be reduced by delivery schemes. Earlier efforts found VMT reduction between passenger travel and delivery vehicles to range from 50 to 95 percent. This work, which included both urban and more rural areas and more realistic comparisons between delivery service areas and retail customer sheds, found a wider range in the VMT reduction. In Seattle, reductions in VMT as small as 20% were observed when passenger vehicle travel was replaced by warehouse-based delivery service. However, in the more rural areas, where passenger vehicle trips are longer and the delivery service areas more closely resemble the retail store customer sheds, the reductions in VMT were between 70 and 85 percent. Likewise, the work here saw reductions in CO2 only in the more rural areas, and observations of 20 to 45 percent were at the low end of the 20-90 percent reduction range observed in the earlier studies. Contact: Anne Goodchild, annegood@uw.edu 12 Pacific Northwest Transportation Consortium

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