University of Washington

17 2014-2015 Annual Report • Project: Confounding Factors of Commercial Motor Vehicles in Safety Critical Events • PI: Salvador Hernandez (OSU), sal.hernandez@oregonstate.edu • Co-Investigators: Eric Jessup (WSU) This study seeks to uncover existing relationships between observed Hours-of-Service (HOS) on likelihood of safety critical events (SCE) and a set of potential confounding factors related to Time-of-Day (TOD). This will be accomplished through (1) a comprehensive existing state- of-the-art and state-of-the-practice as it relates to CMV parking behavior and choice and heterogeneity based methods, (2) perform commercial motor vehicle operator and shipper surveys, (3) conduct statistical analyses and mine current data collected from a stated preference survey, and Oregon and Washington crash data to determine potential factors, (4) conduct factor analyses and estimate and validate heterogeneity based models using the 2/3rd of data prepared and identified in (2) and (3) using advanced econometric software. Once the models have been estimated the stability of the coefficient estimates of the models will be validated using 1/3rd of set aside data. It's envisaged that two journal manuscripts will result from this work, and (5) prepare a final report. • Project: Transportation Corridor Resiliency in the Face of a Changing Climate • PI: Keith Cunningham (UAF), kwcunningham@alaska.edu • Co-Investigators: Michael Olsen (OSU), Joseph Wartman (UW), Ben Leschinsky (OSU) In 2015, President Obama's administration issued the Office of Management and Budget's Circular A-11, which directs Federal agencies—including transportation agencies—to consider climate preparedness and resilience as part of their FY 2017 construction and maintenance budget requests. The effects of a changing climate on transportation corridor slopes is poorly understood, but several recent studies suggest that landslide activity, especially rockfall, is likely to increase as a consequence of increased occurrence of intense precipitation events. This work will be a necessary first step in providing the tools to accomplishing the OMB's Circular A-11's directive. Since 2012, we have been acquiring high-resolution lidar surveys of close to 20 rock-slopes in Alaska in support of Pactrans-supported studies of roadway safety. In this project, we will capitalize on this treasure trove of unique data to quantify how rockfall activity (magnitude frequency of rockfall events) varies with changes in annual storm intensity from 2012 to 2016. We will then use this information to in conjunction with a landslide activity forecasting procedure we developed to investigate how the resiliency of transportation corridor may change in the future. "The effects of a changing climate on transportation corridor slopes is poorly understood, but several recent studies suggest that landslide activity, especially rockfall, is likely to increase as a consequence of increased occurrence of intense precipitation events." — Keith Cunningham (UAF)

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